Originally published September 27, 2024. Soy, corn and wheat have eased their resilient upward price run since July 25, 2024 on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures.
Soybean pricing slipped from September 25 due to both the ongoing American harvest and favorable weather in South America.
Corn’s fall owes to supply increment courtesy the ongoing Midwest harvest and ample stocks, while wheat bows to international factors.
Soy Rallies only to Fall
On September 25, soybeans lost 0.8% in CBOT’s mid-morning trade to post $10.34 a bushel. This was despite having gained the highest price since July 25 of $10.58 a bushel on September 24.
The brief rebound owed to the announcement by top soy buyer China of economic investments, bringing a glimmer of hope.
On the 25th, however, predictions that the long-awaited rainfall in Brazil will make landfall early October pressured the price rally.
Despite a slight recovery early on the 26th, November soy deliveries however ended down 1.2% to $10.401/4 a bushel. Though better than on the 25th, the price was still low by recent standards.
Corn’s Shuttle
Meanwhile, corn contracts for December deliveries eased 0.5% September 26, to settle at $4.13 a bushel.
Like soy, the grain has been shuttling back and forth between the round numbers of $4.10-and $4.20 per bushel.
On the September 26, corn was trading at $4.091/2 per bushel, down 0.6% from its best posting on the 25th.
Increasing market flow in the U.S. from such harvesting sources as Iowa is bringing this pressure on soft commodities markets.
Wheat on the Slip
Slipping, too, after a lengthy holding on to the wings of damaging Russia weather is wheat. On September 25, the strongest CBOT contracts shed 0.4% to trade at $5.753/4 a bushel.
This ease would hound the grain on the 26th when it fell 1% for December deliveries despite a morning rally.
So, American soy and corn harvests at their 13% and 14% completion stages respectively as of September 23 are pressuring prices. To learn more on the Chicago grain market pricing performances in recent years, here is a statistical summary.
CBOT Soy, Corn and Wheat Statistics
Below is how soybeans have performed at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) between October 2023 and September 2024. Source courtesy: Reuters, September 26, 2024.
October 2023: soy posts a low of $12.53 a bushel and a high of $13.22 per bushel.
November 2023: soybeans reach their highest climb to date (October 2023-September 2024 period) at $13.91 a bushel.
March 2024: soybeans post their lowest showing since October 2023, at $11.29 a bushel.
August-September 2024: soy futures slump to a yearly low of $9.39 but regain at $10.63 a bushel in September.
Meanwhile, wheat has shown diverse half-weekly performances throughout September 2024 in Chicago. This is per a Nasdaq graphical representation below:
Half-week ending September 13: the week posts a closing price of $59.475 a bushel.
Half-week ending September 16: the period posts a closing half-weekly loss of over 16 cents to $57.85 a bushel.
Half-weeks between September 19 and 23: from the 19th, wheat continuously shows improvements by a few cents. It starts with $56.55 on the 19th while it ends with $58.25 a bushel on the 23rd.
Half-weeks ending September 26: from the 24th onward, wheat registered falling prices that culminated at $58.425 a bushel on the 26th.
Corn, on the other hand has had diverse yearly margins between 2015 and 2024. Below is a Macrotrend historical data aggregation:
2015 closing average: in 2015, corn had an average closing price of $3.78 a bushel.
2016 to 2018 closing averages: between 2016 and 2018, corn would close lesser than in 2015, and only manage a high closing of $3.70 in 2017.
2021 to 2024: since 2021, closing prices have trended above the $5-a bushel mark. In 2021, the closing average was at $5.75 a bushel, while in 2022 it breached the $6-mark. The closing average then retracted in 2024 to $4.23 a bushel.