South Africa is at a potato supply crossroads after a late July 2024 frost affected the keynote Limpopo crop. Despite a followup price rally as a result, insiders believe this could affect national reserves by only a minor margin.
According to a survey report by Potatoes SA, 2024 reserves will end up being just 3% less than the 2019-23 average.
This means up to 7.4 million ten-kilogram bag losses, equal to 3% of South Africa’s annual potato harvest. Potatoes SA’s CEO Willie Jacobs underlined that the frost in Limpopo could lead to 32% losses in the region.
The body’s survey indicated that some 3,674 hectares suffered the late southern winter frost. However, as the frost hit a crop in diverse growth stages, its effect will eventually be on size rather than volumes.
Therefore, customers could soon find themselves choosing small or large tubers, whose prices will be far apart.
Low Potato Supply Edges Prices
Indeed, weekly prices have been rallying following the frost damage reports in Limpopo, which produces 20% of the national crop.
On August 28, 2024, prices climbed by 15% to 85.31 Rand ($4.82) per 10 kg against 74.24 Rand ($4.20) a week earlier.
By August 29, 2024, the price had touched the 87.82-Rand ($4.96) per 10 kg mark. This was up from 71.63 Rand ($4.05) in the corresponding late August 2023 period.
Data visualization by Potatoes SA shows that 2024 prices have been generally lower between mid-April and mid-July than their 2023 counterparts. Nevertheless, they have since overtaken 2023 prices beginning mid-July through August.
Potato supply in the initial 34 weeks of 2024 has also been relatively lower by 5,143,677 10-kg bags than the 2018-2023 average. For this reason, 2024’s average weekly price have been more or less above the 5-year average.
Ultimately, it remains to see how the black frost hit in Limpopo turns out for both current reserves and prices. To get a broader view about potato supply in South Africa, read on in the statistics section below.
South Africa Potato Statistics
South Africa is a key producer of potatoes not on only by continental but world standards. In 2021, it ranked 3rd in Africa after Egypt and Algeria and 27th globally with a production total of 2,595,280 tonnes. FAOSTAT puts the 2022 production at 2,528,946 tonnes, a slight decline from the 2021 output. As such, the country produces more than its consumption needs, which average just over 1.5 million tonnes per year (2018). 20% of South Africa’s production goes into the potato processing sector such as making chips and other products.
Which regions produce most potatoes?
According to government data, Limpopo province led production in 2018 at 22% of the total area. Following suit were Eastern Free State with 11,562 hectares and Western Free State with 7,372 hectares.
What is Limpopo’s potato acreage?
Limpopo cultivates around 12,000 hectares of potatoes. This helps realize a harvest of the tuber equal to a fluctuating 20 to 22% of the national total. In comparative terms, the national potato acreage reached 69,159 hectares in 2021 before declining to 66,898 hectares in 2022.
How much potatoes do South Africa’s farmers sell locally per year?
According to Potatoes SA, between 2019 and 2023, South Africa’s markets averaged sales of 70,328,889 10-kg bags (703,289 tonnes). The lowest margin was 2023’s 65,651,848 10-kg bags (615,618 tonnes) while the peak was 2021’s 71,321,432 bags (713,214 tonnes).
What is the 2019-23 average farm-gate price of potatoes in South Africa?
Potato sales in South Africa are mostly in 10 kg bags at the farm and wholesale. The 5-year price median between 2019 and 2023 was 44.77 Rand ($2.53) per 10 kg, according to Potatoes SA. The average peak during this period was 2023 at 64.61 Rand ($3.65), with the first 34 weeks of 2024 following at 62.39 Rand ($3.54).