Kenya’s sweeteners industry is back in the picture following glut supplies, with consequential sugar price decrement.
As of August 9, the farm-gate price of sugarcane had dropped to KSH 4,950 ($38.22) a tonne, triggering farmers’ frustration.
This marks a -3.4% price decline from May’s KSH 5,125 ($39.58), down from KSH 6,050 ($46.72) a tonne before March 2024.
Wholesale prices of sugar, now at KSH 5,128 ($39.60) per 50 kg, are almost half those of August 2023 at KSH 9,500 ($73.36) a kg. This according to the Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA).
Beforehand, retail sugar, which sells in mainly 2 kg packets, had ameliorated to the KSH 225-250 ($1.74-1.93) range in July. In contrast, the May 2024 price of brown sugar had notched up to KSH 365 ($2.82) a kg.
Now consumers await the price to drop further to the norm of between KSH 138.05 and KSH 170 ($1.07-1.31) a kg.
Sugar Price Relief Follows Impressive Production Rally
The price cooling follows uptick milling, after a bumper cane harvest that could reach at least 730,000 tonnes.
According to AFA, in the half-year period ending August 2024, total production hit 485,802 tonnes.
The production momentum peaked in June at 75,500 tonnes and July at 84,500 tonnes of milled sugar.
All 17 major sugar factories in the Western region, the Rift Valley and at the Coast were at full capacity. In the half-year, these factories produced from minimum 16,610 tonnes at the South Nyanza (Sony) mills to 97,260 tonnes maximum at the West Kenya Sugar mills.
After this supply rally, Kenya is contemplating stopping imports from the Common Market of East and Southern Africa (COMESA) and resume exports.
Ample rainfall and adherence to a premature harvest ban has aided small-scale producers, who supply 80% of domestic sugarcane recover productivity.
So, as consumers in Kenya settle down to a sugar price normalization, things are looking up for a recently dormant sector. The following statistics add more insights on both pricing history, consumption and production data.
Kenya Sugar Statistics
Kenya expects to revamp its sugar glory after a July 2023 harvesting ban by the Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA). The ban has significantly reduced premature harvests and seen sugar production from sugarcane touch an USDA estimate of 750,000 tonnes (2024-25 season). Sugarcane production will also recover to 10.4 million tonnes, after a low of 9.03 million tonnes in the 2023-24 USDA’s estimate. All sugarcane goes into sugar production in Kenya, a fraction of which for direct consumption and the rest for product utilization.
How much sugar does Kenya import annually?
In 2022, Kenya imported more than half the proportion of the sugar it exported. While exports raked in $568,000, imports cost $269,000, the 36th highest in the world for 2022. The main import sources are India, Mauritius, Thailand, Egypt and Uganda.
How have Kenya’s sugar prices been changing at retail over recent years?
Supermarket prices of sugar have been rising and falling between 2015 and 2022. The period’s lowest retail price average was 2015’s KSH 109.24 ($0.84) a kg while the peak was 2022’s KSH 138.05 ($1.07). Volatile years where the price changed sharply included 2017 at KSH 137.82 ($1.07) a kg versus 2016’s KSH 18.21 ($0.91). The period’s other volatile year was 2019 at KSH 116.21($0.90) versus 2018’s KSH 132.62 ($1.02).
How do Kenya’s sugar prices compare internationally?
In April 2024, Kenya’s sugar price averaged $1.28 a kg, the 56th highest worldwide. Comparatively, Uganda ($1.40), Nigeria ($1.40) and South Africa ($1.85), and 7 other African countries had more expensive prices than Kenya’s.
How much sugar does Kenya consume annually?
According to AFA, Kenyans consume 1.1 million tonnes of sugar, 950,000 tonnes (86.4%) of which is for home use. The 2022 consumption rate was 1.224 million tonnes, or 22.65 kg per person per year.
How many sugar mills does Kenya operate?
Kenya had 17 operational sugar mills in 2024, 13 of which private and the rest public. Data shows that public mills use more cane (ratio of 18:1) than private ones (ratio of 10:1) to produce the same sugar amount.