After a June reprieve due to production prospects in Ghana, the world’s cocoa prices are up again July 12 to a 2-week high.
A sharp rally came on July 11 after reports that quarter 2 grindings in Europe were up by 4.1%, year-on-year . This stoked trade fears that the grindings, which were at 357,502 tonnes by June 2024, could reduce inventories.
Likewise, news that the world’s leading shipper, Ivory Coast, had a poor run in exports damped trade mood and exacerbated prices. Government’s data on July 8, 2024 showed cocoa bean exports of 1.61 million tonnes between October 1, 2023 and July 7, 2024. This was a 29% yearly downsizing in shipments.
Additionally, the International Coffee Exchange (ICE)’s inventories at American ports had shrunk to 3,132,650 bags by July 9, a 42-month low.
This is despite North America’s grindings in Quarter 1, 2024 at 113,683 tonnes being 3.7% higher than Q1, 2023’s.
Cocoa Prices Impact Markets
Futures markets received the first impact of the above developments. Order prices for September cocoa bean deliveries rose by 5.75% in New York and 4.94% in London, on July 9.
By 8.50 GMT on July 12, 2024, cocoa was trading at £7,629 ($9,848) a tonne in London, 3.95% up day-on-day.
Though the current price trails the April 2024 peak of $11,000 a tonne, it still surpasses the annual average of $2,500 a tonne.
However, 2024’s phenomenal tripling of the 2023 price may not last for long, given rain prospects in Ghana and Indonesia.
Even chocolate companies Hershey and Mondelez foresee a marginal price decrease come September when production could rebound.
The companies think that the reigning price surge is to do with market speculation, which attracts inflated quotations.
Ultimately, as top producers like Ivory Coast and Ghana await their mid-crop showings this September, the world’s cocoa prices remain elevated for now. More so, the price history reinvents itself, as the following cocoa bean statistics indicate.
World Cocoa Price History Statistics
Cocoa bean prices have changed by over 3 times between May 2023 and July 2024, a virtual reinvention. In May 2023, the global average was $2,986 a tonne, which rose to $4,210 in December. Starting January 2024, prices began a gradual climb to $4,400 a tonne, up by 4.51% month-on-month. February 2024 saw the rates go haywire by a monthly change of 29.36%, to $5,560 a tonne. They then registered a 27.52% rise in March to $7,090 a tonne. The April 2024 average remains the highest so far at $9,400 a tonne, a monthly increase by 37.38%.
How have cocoa bean prices performed recently in the American futures market?
U.S.’ cocoa price futures have performed erratically in 2024 after overall stability in previous years. In the whole of June up to July 11, 2024, prices in the American markets have changed by $3,755 a tonne, hovering between $11,000 and $7,245 a tonne. So is the June 1-July 7, 2024 average of $8,585 a tonne, which is almost 3 times the entire 2023 average.
What are cocoa farmers’ prices in West Africa?
As the key source of cocoa, Ghana and Ivory Coast attract monitoring on how they remunerate farmers. However, their prices are some of the lowest in the world. Ivory Coast’s farmers are receiving 1,500 CFA francs ($2.46) a kg for the 2023-24 season. This is even as Ghana’s farmers are getting 32,120 cedis ($2,481 at the April 2024 rate) per tonne.