Global wheat has closed 2023 on mixed results, with most price influences coming off geopolitical factors, especially the Ukraine-Russia war.
European Union (EU)’s wheat, for one, ended 2023 on a depreciated price note. In the U.S., performance fell year-on-year despite a November-December rebound.
Here are a few countries and regions which show where global wheat is headed for 2024.
EU’s Wheat Prices Fall
The resumption in Black Sea trade amid war helped drop wheat prices in Europe by 0.9% on December 30, 2023. Opposite to expectations that prices would rebound from short supplies, wheat went into 2024 at 223 EUR ($246.93) per tonne.
With Russia shipping grains and Ukraine doing the same, Black Sea trade endured to the end week of 2023.
Hence, the Euronext wheat trading platform in Paris saw its lowest wheat futures since December 2021. The price fell to 220.5 EUR ($243.24) per tonne two times in the last week of December, 2023.
Pakistan has Sufficient Wheat
Meanwhile in Pakistan, the government says that there is sufficient grain, with current focus on enhancing productivity.
Pakistan’s Caretaker Minister for National Food Security and Research Dr. Kausar Abdullah Malik praised Pakistan as a wheat supplier.
Wheat is a major food crop in Pakistan as it grows in virtually every province, especially Sindh and Punjab. The grain ranks as the biggest food crop by area in Pakistan, hence its prioritization by the government.
The average yield is also relatively high at 2600 kg per hectare, according to Pakistan’s Agriculture Information Bank.
Russia Gifts Zimbabwe Wheat
Further afield, Russia has continued to meet its August 2023 bargain to supply 6 African nations with free wheat. On December 30, the country delivered 25,000 tonnes to Zimbabwe via the Beira port of Mozambique.
Other countries that have received the free cereal include Somalia and Burkina Faso, which had their shipments starting November.
The Central African Republic, Eritrea and Mali are the three other recipients of this government-to-government initiative.
Russia harvested record wheat in early winter 2023 and can therefore afford gifting.
U.S. Wheat Rebounds
Even as Russia gifts the surplus to allies, U.S. wheat futures recovered on December 28, 2023. The price advanced owing to Black Sea trade fears and news that a Ukrainian wheat tanker hit a mine.
March wheat futures in Chicago rallied by over 8 cents to close at $6.311/2 a bushel on December 29.
The overall outlook for 2023. however, has been lukewarm. Chicago’s Soft red winter wheat fell by 23% for the year compared to 2022. Kansas’ hard red winter wheat also slumped year-on-year by 28%.
While the Black Sea trade disruption rallied U.S. wheat prices, a bumper wheat harvest had a counterbalancing effect by lowering prices.
Given these geopolitical trends, global wheat is most likely to see mixed results at the start of 2024.