By end November, 2023, Russia had threshed 99 million tons of wheat and was forecasting 65 million tonnes in exports. Some of this glut is on the way to six African nations that will receive free grain. 

A Reuters report from an Interfax feed showed that 98% of the grain harvest was already complete by November 29. 

The total grain production level in bunker weight terms was 151 million end November, with wheat accounting for 52.2% of the output. This was therefore the second biggest reaping after the record 2022 harvest.

Total Figures Excluding Crimea

While Interfax puts the 2023 wheat production at approximately 99 million tonnes, another source cites a lower figure but excludes Crimea.

Agritec, a global agricultural commodity and price forecaster, cites the 2023 wheat output at 89.6 million tonnes. The revised figure excludes grain from the Crimea region and Ukrainian annexations within Russia. 

In 2022, Russia produced 96.5 million tonnes of wheat, according to Agritel. This record figure has helped the country retain its status as the world’s number one wheat exporter. 

Gifting Free Grain

Russia’s wheat glut has seen six countries in Sub-Saharan Africa receive the grain as a goodwill gesture of diplomacy.

Somalia welcomed the grain delivery of over 25,000 tonnes on December 2.  Somalia’s Minister of maritime transport and ports Abdullahi Ahmed Jama praised the gift as “timely.” 

The cache apportions some 200,000 metric tons that President Vladmir Putin promised after Russia decamped the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Other than Somalia, Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Eritrea, the Central African Republic and Mali, will receive free wheat to fight food insecurity.

Rising Retail Wheat Flour & Sinking Wheat Export Prices

Amid this gifting, Russia prides in low grain products’ prices at home. Between 2018 and 2022, however, the price of retail wheat flour has been inching up steadily. 

The 2018 price was 33.47 ($0.37) rubles per kg, which rose to 36.36 ($0.40) in 2019, afloat inflation. In 2020 the price broke the 40-ruble mark at 41.6 rubles ($0.46) per kg. By 2022, it had breached the 50-ruble mark, to trade at 51.84 rubles ($0.57) per kg. 

At the export level, prices of Russia’s wheat exports have been 20% lower than those of the United States, as of October 9, 2023. While American grain wheat was selling at $305 per metric tonne, that from Russia was shipping at $205 per tonne.  

Ultimately, Russia’s bumper grain and a promising American crop right from mid-2023 have sunk global wheat prices to a 36-month low.