Following recent rains in US southwest, high quality alfalfa prices have remained steady while those of low quality ground pellets have plummeted.

Back in January 2021, global wholesale prices for alfalfa surged through the $200/ton divide. In March the same year, a ton cost $300 in the US market. By August, 2023, a ton costs $325/ton, at least in the hay-growing state of Kansas.

Despite this two-year price growth of 62.5%, demand in the US for high quality alfalfa remains steady but low for ground alfalfa. The reason for the low demand for the ground crop is the flooding in the US southwest, where alfalfa that is normally sold as hay is now going for grinding into pellets. 

Hence, the resulting low supply of fresh alfalfa and hay prices in the US remain poised between steady and gains.

On the flip side, demand for the thirsty crop (alfalfa seeds, hay and pellets) is growing in foreign lands, especially Saudi Arabia, which currently leases land within the US.

The current retail prices for alfalfa seeds in the US per kg is $8.8, an 83% rise from $2.18-$3.00/pound or $4.8-$6.6 per kg in 2021.

Reason for surging foreign demand

10 years ago, a Saudi company, known as Fondomonte, a subsidiary of the Middle-East dairy giant, Almarai, acquired swathes of land on the desert of Arizona to grow alfalfa to ship home to Saudi Arabia. The Middle East nation has banned alfalfa cultivation back home to preserve scarce water resources. Hence, a multi-billion project in Arizona has been helping export alfalfa from the heart of the US for a decade.

In 2021, Saudi Arabia shipped 171,000 metric tons of processed alfalfa from abroad to meet the demand for cattle feed. This represented 14,600 more shipments than those of two years earlier.

 Intelligence shows that the compound annual growth rate of the Saudi alfalfa market is 5.2% per year till 2028.

While alfalfa shoots or sprouts cost SAR 10.05 ($2.68) per 100 grams at a retail store in Riyadh, alfalfa seeds cost much less at SAR 20.63($5.50) per kg.

As alfalfa remains the most water-intensive crop grown in the US, conservation groups are trying to draw attention to over-exploitation of water resources. 

Arizona analysts say that if the current irrigation of 3000 acres continues, the desert won’t have enough water for the population in a century. The same applies to the decimated Colorado River drainage due to irrigation of grass hay, alfalfa and other commercial crops.

In short, despite being the only way out to meet alfalfa demand, desert cultivation is also cutting the reserves of the planet’s primary resource: water.