Wheat prices (in France) have been very volatile in recent days according to the negotiations on Ukrainian exports, but fundamentals are not moving and are mostly bearish. Availability remains important at the end of the campaign. “There are large stocks in Europe and the Black Sea from the record harvest in Russia,” confirms Maxence Devillers, analyst at Agritel.
Postponement stocks for the 2022-2023 campaign are expected to reach 15 million tons in the European Union. These European stocks are mainly concentrated in the eastern countries bordering Ukraine, which have not managed to export all their grains due to the presence of Ukrainian volumes, hence the current tensions.
Availability
Deferral stocks are also high in Australia due to a historic harvest in 2022-2023. Same observation in Russia where they are expected to reach between 15 and 20 million tons, according to production estimates (between 92 and 100 Mt). The record volume of Russian stocks therefore already ensures good availability even in the event of slightly lower production in 2023-2024 (80-85 Mt planned for the moment).
These high availability amounts weigh on the markets, but everything will depend on the volumes collected in the new campaign. For the moment, the weather does not inspire concern except in the United States with very degraded winter wheat.
On the trade side, the eight largest exporters are expected to sell a record volume of 185 million tonnes in 2022-2023, including 42 million tonnes for Russia, 13.5 Mt for Ukraine and 35 million tonnes for the European Union. This is a sign of a significant demand for wheat from all importing countries, especially China. The latter have also turned away from corn due to the fall in production in exporting countries (the EU, United States and Argentina).
China is shopping
China became the world’s largest importer of wheat in 2022-2023, with 12 million tons, according to FranceAgriMer’s figures in April. That’s an increase of 2 million tons compared to March. Egypt is usually in first place. “This China purchasing policy would be due to a desire to ensure its food security but also to the high domestic prices of wheat and corn for operators,” says Marc Zribi, head of FranceAgriMer’s grain and sugar unit.
Source: Lafranceagricole.fr