Poor inventory targets have slowed down the global sugar sector in major markets so far in 2025, research indicates. However, supportive policies in some nations, like Jamaica, project a 2025 recovery.

According to Elara Capital, the slowdown is visible through sugar prices, whose annual drop has been hovering around 5%. 

By January 10, 2025, international sugar spot prices were at $0.19 a pound, hardly having changed since December 10, 2024.

U.S and India 

In the United States, millers decreased inventories to meet quick market targets due to late raw material arrivals, amid international-influenced low prices.  This way, U.S.’ domestic reserves were down by 8.6% in Q3 2024, to stand at 6.9 million tonnes. 

Another American lag is ethanol production, which by October 2024 saw prices stagnate and harm profits.

In India, the main culprit is production, with forecasts indicating a yearly drop of 12% this financial year. 

The country saw its sugar production in October through December 2024 drop by 16% from the corresponding period in 2023. 

However, early January, prices were still low, influenced by international trends. Hence, the government has been contemplating improving the minimum selling price of sugar above 31 rupees ($0.36) per kg.

Alternatively, increasing ethanol blending in India could help domestic sugar prices shoot up naturally, beginning February.

Jamaica Hopeful

Unlike India and the United States, Jamaica is treading a braver path. Indeed, the Minister of Agriculture Floyd Green has outlined a growth plan for 2025.  

During a speech on January 8, Green said the national sugar sector is “on the cusp of significant growth.”

He however admitted that 2025’s sugarcane production will decrease due to the longterm effects of Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Storm Rafael.

So, the global sugar sector could overcome current stagnation with prices improving in India as early as February. This is even as Jamaica is focusing on a revival from weather-related shortages. Below are other statistics on 2025’s world sugar outlook.

2025 Global Sugar Statistics

World sugar consumption has been increasing by about 1.1% per year between 2010 and 2024, which could also be true of 2025. This is because consumption volumes grow in tandem with an increasing global population. However, the gap between production and consumption has been diminishing in recent years.  For instance, in the 2023-24 year, production at 181.3 million tonnes and consumption at 177.8 million tonnes left a surplus of just 3.5 million tonnes.  One factor for the tight gap is poor weather in 2023 when production fell despite rising demand. The outlook for 2025 in its part is more promising, per the data below:

How much sugar will the world consume in 2025? 

Forecasts put world sugar consumption at 178.79 million tonnes in the 2024-25 season, slightly above the 177.33 million tonnes of 2023-24. This will be the highest margin since the 2010-11 season, when consumption was at 155.8 million tonnes. 

Will the sugar industry grow in 2025 and beyond? 

According to Expert Market Research, the sugar industry will improve by 1% between 2025 and 2034.  By 2034, production will be at 201.16 million tonnes, up from 182.11 million tonnes of 2024.