Traders expect world cotton prices to recover from the reigning slow start, citing that May deliveries onward will gradually gather strength. 

Markets have been ticking downward in January 2025, continuing a bearish slide since the price heights of February 2024. 

United States

For one, U.S. cotton opened the new year with a price below $0.68 a pound, which by January 10 rose to $0.69.

Analysts blame the stagnation in the $.60s to the already contracted March purchases but hope May contracts will recover the $.70s.

The last time this happened was on December 12, 2024 at $0.71, but this was still way off the February high of $0.98 a pound.

India

Also feeling the price freeze is India, with prices currently below the minimum selling price (msp).

The government-run Cotton Corporation of India recently procured some 6.3 million bales (each 176 kg) of raw cotton. This represents 46% of ongoing  supplies  out of 13.6 million bales in total arrivals this far in the 2024-25 season.

Apparently, India’s downward msp could be better for its current downward trend has nothing to do with large supplies. 

In fact, according to experts, India as the second biggest cotton grower in the world, saw its crop decrease in 2023. While this could automatically mean good prices, it is the government which decides market prices and is currently keeping them down.

Pakistan vs World Cotton

Now relying on global imports, Pakistan, like India, had a small crop in 2023 totaling 5.7 million bales. The reduced crop buoyed early January 2025 prices to $0.81 a pound.

However, the provincial cotton hubs of Sindh and Punjab were in late 2024 lamenting of unnatural decrease in prices.

Farmers and brokers blamed huge imports seeking to offset domestic supplies for the price depreciation by as much as  34%.

At a time like this back in January 2024, the situation was different as local prices were quite stable via international trade.

In short, three countries, three price directions. If one were to take Pakistan’s price recovery example, it follows that evren the U.S. and India will soon follow. And as the following statistics show, each of the three nations impact world cotton rates.

World Cotton Prices Statistics

Cotton production and prices go hand-in-hand although sometimes domestic policies by top growers hinder this reflection. 

The U.S. as the biggest cotton exporter helps maintain world market prices for it exports to all major producers. For example in 2023, out of  total $5.95 billion cotton exports, top cotton grower, China, received $1.55 billion.  Pakistan received $800.28 million worth of American cotton while India bought $231.16 million.  

Do all top cotton producers sell at the same prices?

The prices of the top cotton players differ much from each other despite mutual export trends, due to macroeconomic and policy effects. The October 2023 price, for example, had the U.S. selling at between $0.794 and 0.808 per pound while China was averaging $1.142. This is even as India maintained a price of between $0.899 and 0.94 per pound while Pakistan sold at  between $0.712 and 0.713. 

How have American futures performed between early 2024 and early 2025? 

According to Markets Insider, the  U.S.’ cotton markets opened January 2024 strongly at $0.84 a pound.  They reciprocally opened 2025 weakly at $0.68 a pound. The period’s highest point occurred on February 26 at $0.98 a pound, before reaching rock bottom in July at $0.66 a pound.