The South Africa macadamia sector needs to diversify exports away from China to avoid disruptions as happened in 2015, industry experts have warned.

Speaking at the Macadamias South Africa (SAMAC) summit in September 2024, Professor Ferdi Meyer of the Bureau for Food Agricultural Policy cited China’s rising acreage.

Meyer hinted at uptick cultivation of macadamia in China in 2024 on 300,000 hectares versus South Africa’s 78,000 hectares.

As China receives 40% of South Africa’s macadamia exports, as of 2022, market disruption would be inevitable if the destination improved its production.

Mitigation suggestions at the SAMAC conference are to cap supplies to the key destination at 33% so as to absorb trade shocks. This according to Jillian Laing, the Chief Executive of the World Macadamia Organization. 

Local Market and Other Destinations 

Exploring new destinations should go together with exploiting the local market, given that exports do not exhaust all production.

In 2020, for instance, South Africa shipped 29,604 tonnes  or 61% its harvest, totaling 48,295 tonnes.

The local industry is therefore critical for the utilization of the 39% that remains after exports. While 7% of the raw macadamia nuts undergo local consumption, the rest enjoys use in the processing industries to make confectionery. 

In its part, the export base is a segmentation of North America, the Middle-east, the Far-east and Western Europe. 

Most experts at the SAMAC conference bet on the Middle-east as the “sweet spot” to trial due to proximity.

In short, the focus is now turning on diversifying South Africa’s macadamia exports from China to elsewhere. And as the data below indicates, this is possible, given that some markets buy more of Pretoria’s shelled nuts than China does.

South Africa Macadamia Nuts Statistics

Between 1991 and 2022, South Africa’s macadamia cultivation outstripped all other nut crops in growth by doubling production 20 times over. By 2022, production had reached 68,522 metric tonnes, up from 1991’s 1,211 metric tonnes, according to Pro Agri. Acreage has also enjoyed a similar expansive growth since 2016, culminating at 78,000 hectares in 2024.  Ideally, the country enjoys advantageous export trade because of links to big consumption markets such as China and the United States.

Is South Africa the biggest exporter of macadamia? 

South Africa has been leading the world in macadamia exports since 2015. In 2022, the country exported $291 million worth of fresh or dried macadamia nuts. Only Australia at $214 million and Kenya at $109 million came near, according to OEC’s data.

In which macadamia nut segments does South Africa enjoy most destination market diversity? 

It is in shelled nuts that South Africa enjoys most market diversity as the U.S., rather than China, claims the biggest share at 25% of imports, as of 2020. For nuts-in-shell, an area where China controls 35% of imports from South Africa as of 2020, options are few. These include such markets as Hong Kong , which commanded 42% of imports in 2020. There are also Vietnam, Germany and Kenya, the last two claiming 1% of the import market share apiece in 2020.