Arabica coffee prices finished strong on July 5, 2024 after harvest pressure in Brazil had dipped them before July 3.
After a -0.48% decline on July 3, Arabica bean rates for September delivery rose by 2.01% on July 5.
The International Coffee Exchange (ICE) recorded $2.29 a pound for September 2024 deliveries, a 1-and1/2 week price high. In comparison, the previous showings on July 4 had settled at a high of $2.24 a pound.
Virtually all contracts on the ICE futures platform had increases of at least 5 U.S. cents to the pound of coffee beans. These contracts included December 2024, March 2025, July 2025 and December 2025 Arabica beans’ delivery dates.
The cash market however posted a negative change unlike the positive change on the futures contracts above. Indeed, the cash price on July 5, 2024 fell to $2.47 per pound versus $2.51 a pound on July 4.
Brazil, Vietnam Weigh in
The upward rallies in Arabica prices resulted from weather forecasts showing increasing dryness in Brazil and Vietnam. This is despite a supply increase due to the ongoing harvest in Brazil.
Dry weather is usually bullish on prices as it stokes fears of lower-than-average yields and naturally hikes prices.
Though Vietnam mainly produces Robusta, dry weather there also affects Arabica (Coffea arabica) supplies due to demand shifts.
On July 1, 2024 Vietnam announced a 10% yearly fall in its January-to-June 2024 coffee exports and rallied global prices.
The same applies to any changes in the exchange rates of supply nations. For instance, on July 5, Brazil’s real strengthened and made exporters of Arabica withhold supplies, leading to international price increment. Whenever the local currency strengthens against the dollar, Brazil’s traders keep back because the strong currency brings low cash conversion.
In short, many factors played out in the rally of Arabica coffee prices in the week ending July 5. However, this could be short-lived after Columbia reported a 23% yearly production rise this June, at 1.17 million 60-kilogram bags. As the statistics below show, prices for this variety change depending on production in key countries including Brazil and Colombia.
World Arabica Coffee Statistics
In the 2023-24 period, the world produced 97.315 million 60-kg bags of Arabica, up from 2022-23’s 87.886 million bags. The highest production in recent years, however was in the 2018-19 year at 104.976 million 60-kg bags. In comparison, Robusta production in the 2022-23 period reached 77 million 60-kg bags, 10-million bags less than Arabica.
Which countries lead in Arabica production?
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s estimates show that Brazil led 2023’s Arabica production at 44.7 million 60-kg bags. Following suit was Columbia at 11.6 million bags and Ethiopia at 8.35 million bags. Honduras came third at 5.5 million bags while Peru was fourth at 4.2 million bags. Only 33 countries, ending with Malawi at 10 million 60-kg bags produced Arabica coffee above this amount.
When were global Arabica coffee prices highest in recent years?
According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), Arabica prices reached their post-2010s high in November 2014 at $1.6217 per pound. They would rise again to their second highest level after this date in July 2021 at $1.5224 per pound. As of 2024, coffee prices, including Robusta, are averaging $1.8326 a pound.