The rain-delayed Oklahoma wheat harvest is recording high quality yields of 60-61 pounds a bushel near its completion.
This is despite an early reduction in test weights to between 57 and 59 a bushel, especially in southwest Oklahoma.
As the harvest continues however, weights will average 60 pounds a bushel since the lesser weights occurred before the rains. This is according to a June 10, 2024 harvest assessment report by the Oklahoma Wheat Commission.
By the time the Commission reported the above data, the entire Oklahoma wheat harvest was already 55% over.
This is contrast to a normal reaping timeline, which usually ends by June 1. In 2024, rain fell mid-way and partially cut off the harvest and with it came worries of excess grain moisture.
All the same, this same precipitation is proving worthwhile to northern Oklahoma farmers, who reported impressive weight results before June 13. Indeed, late precipitation has nourished a crop that grew under a dry spring.
In spring, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast the 2024 Oklahoma wheat crop at 92.6 million bushels. This means Oklahoma may not top its 2022 harvest of 111 million bushels but will still have a bumper crop.
Multi-state Wheat Harvest Brings Prices Down
Given the ongoing good yields in Oklahoma and other wheat states, nationwide wheat prices look on a downward trajectory.
Indeed, the winter wheat harvest in the U.S. is forecast at 6% more than that of the 2023-24 period. USDA also expects all-wheat production and exports to rise year-on-year in the 2024-25 year.
As national production increases by 3% to 1.858 billion bushels, the 2024-25 farm gate price will drop to $6 a bushel from 2023-24’s $7.10 a bushel.
American wheat exports will also rise in the 2024-25 season to 775 million bushels, up by 55 million, year-on-year. This increase will put the 2024-25 farm-gate price lower than the February 2024’s peak of $6.36 per bushel.
In summary, as the rain-delayed Oklahoma wheat harvest peaks with high-quality yields, there is expectation of strong domestic supplies. But as the data below reveals, the U.S. still imports around 1/5th of its wheat production total.
U.S. Wheat Statistics
Wheat ranks among the most important commercial grains in the U.S and it grows mostly in the upper Midwest. In 2023, Oklahoma in south-central United States was the 9th biggest producer with 68.6 million bushels (bu). The Midwest topped output with North Dakota’s 307.8 million bushels (bu), Kansas’ 201.3 million bu. and Montana’s 186.7 million bu.
How does the U.S. compare in global wheat trade and consumption?
The United States produces just 6 to 7% of world wheat, but it often makes the top 5 biggest global exporters. It is also a major importer, with 140 million bu imported in the 2023-24 season. In consumption, the U.S. ranked 5th in the 2023-24 season with 31.407 million tonnes (1.15 billion bu). Comparatively, the consumption leader was China at 153.5 million tonnes (5.64 billion bu).
Which are the most cultivated wheat varieties in the United States?
The United States grows durum wheat, soft red winter, soft white, hard red winter and hard red spring wheat. In the 2023-24 season, production of all wheat varieties in the United States reached 1.81 billion bu.