Ivory Coast on June 7, 2024 temporarily halted unprocessed cocoa bean exports, edging the international cocoa price to a five-week peak.

National regulator Le Conseil du Café-Cacao informed export firms with no grinding facilities that they wouldn’t buy cocoa beans till end June. 

At the same time, cocoa futures for July delivery in London and New York witnessed a daily price increase. The London price increased by 2.24%  while that in New York rose by 2.30% day-on-day on June 11.

In its part, the Nasdaq index recorded a June 11 price of $9,910 per tonne, higher than $9,687 on June 10.

Historically, June 2024 has seen a sustained cocoa price of above $9,000 per tonne on Nasdaq. So far, it was lowest on June 5 at $9,408 a tonne and highest on June 7 at $9,933 a tonne.

Meanwhile, traders in Ivory Coast call the government’s decision a ploy to benefit international grinders based in the country.

This is even as the world’s top cocoa-producing nation shipped 1.53 million tonnes between October 1 and June 9. The shipments registered a 29% fall in volume, year-on-year.

According to Ecom Agroindustrial, Cóte d’Ivoire’s cocoa production ending September 2024 will slump by 21.5% to 1.75 million tonnes, an eight-year low.

Bigger Deficit

The above projection echoes a May 31 report by the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) of 439,000 tonnes in global supply deficit.

While only a 17% increase from February’s 374,000-tonne deficit, the latest projection is however way higher than 2022-23’s 74,000-tonne deficit. 

The agency adds that the fact that “unrelenting” grinding is still happening amid high price rallies forecloses end-year supply declines.

The ultimate price rally factor besides Ivory Coast’s export ban and ICCO deficit review is U.S.’ ports cocoa inventories. Indeed, inventories were down to 3,105,525 bags on June 7, a 40-month low and this could turn bullish for cocoa prices. And as the following statistics show, much banks on Ivory Coast’s future production.

Ivory Coast Cocoa Statistics 

Ivory Coast produces the world’s highest volume of cocoa beans, equal to 44% of global production. Output swung from 2.248 million tonnes in the 2020-21 season to 2.121 million tonnes in the 2021-22 season. The 2022-23 season realized 2.241 million tonnes while the 2023-24 season’s estimates were at 1.8 million tonnes.

What are the historical prices of Ivory Coast’s cocoa beans in the 2023-24 season? 

In Q2, 2023, Ivory Coast exported cocoa at CFA Francs 1,260 ($2.04) per kg. The rate rose to CFA Francs 2,731 ($4.43) in Q4, 2023 and CFA Francs 2,682 ($4.35) in Q1, 2024. 

How does Ivory Coast rank in world cocoa consumption? 

Ivory Coast had the highest cocoa consumption rate among 160 nations, at 6.41 kg per person per year, in 2021. Only Iceland and Luxembourg and Ireland came closest at over 5 kg each while Ethiopia finished last at 0.010 kg.