Uganda’s food inflation rose by negative 1.4% in May 2024 year-on-year, up from negative 2.4% in April 2024 year-on-year. Soaring tomato and fresh vegetables prices contributed to the increase.
Despite being in the negative territory, the annual inflation had notable price impact on restaurant menu prices. Data shows that meal rates hiked from 6.3% to 8.1% between April and May 2024.
Key exceptions were plantains, cooking bananas, onions, tubers, passion fruit, pineapple and pulses, whose prices dropped. This way they helped ameliorate monthly food inflation to an increase of 0.2% in May 2024 versus 0.4% in April 2024.
Costly Tomatoes
Price increases in tomatoes however countered the decreases in the above food selections and notched up food inflation.
According to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), tomato prices hiked by 19.5% between May 2023 and May 2024. This is despite ameliorating a month earlier in April 2024 to 3.4%.
The same applied to fresh leafy vegetables, whose yearly inflation hit 13.5% in May 2024, from just 1.6% in April 2024.
But for these two basic vegetables, the annual inflation increase for all food classes could therefore have been below -1.4%.
Indeed, the May 2024 core annual inflation in all economical sectors in Uganda was way higher than that of food at 3.7%.
As such, Edgar Niyimpa, UBOS’ statistician, linked the core inflation increase to price rises in transportation, energy and hotelier industries. Road transport inflation edged to 4.4% in May 2024 while those of hotel meal and fuel categories hiked to 8.1% and 9.5% respectively.
The Fuel Factor
Analysts trace rising food inflation back to early May when petrol prices, which influence food prices, began to increase. During that period, transporters lamented a new 100-shilling ($0.026) excise duty per liter of petrol.
After factoring in rising transportation costs, a crate of tomatoes was selling at 700,000 shillings ($183.47) by May 21. This was up from April’s average of 650,000 shillings ($170.36). Meat, on the other hand, saw prices reach 15,000 shillings ($3.93) per kg in late May.
In summation, the prices of tomatoes and fresh vegetables are driving Uganda’s food inflation primarily due to secondary factors including fuel expenses. This could also be due to other macroeconomics such as the statistics below.
Uganda Tomato Statistics
Uganda is a regional exporter of tomatoes in both raw and processed form. In 2022, Uganda was the world’s 96th biggest raw tomato exporter worth $90,200. The country also ranked 103rd in world processed tomato exports worth $99,100 in 2022. The main destinations of Uganda’s processed tomatoes in 2022 were the Democratic Republic of Congo ($51,600), the UAE ($47,200) and Rwanda ($189).
In terms of consumption, Ugandans ate 34,094 kg of tomatoes in 2013 and ranked 109th in worldwide per capita rankings. Regarding popularity, the most cultivated tomato varieties in Uganda are hybrids such as Assila, Valencia, Novel, VL 642 and Ranger F1. Their choice by many farmers owes to hardy features, high yields and excellent pest resistance.