After a 90-day period of soaring prices, wheat futures finally dropped at Euronext trading platform in Paris on April 29, 2024. 

Among contracts, wheat set for September delivery fell most, by 2.2%, to settle at EUR 230 ($246.12) per tonne.

This was a major retreat given prices had peaked at a three-month high of EUR 235.75 ($252.23) on April 26.

The major drive for the price ease was the prediction of rain in Russia’s Caucasus region, after below-average spring rainfall. The southern and northern Caucasus wheat regions produce the bulk of winter wheat in Russia. 

Despite dry conditions, the country still expected a bumper wheat harvest in the 2024-25 season of 93 million tonnes. In 2023, production reached 91 million tonnes, a record crop for the country.

Poor harvest in Russia normally spikes prices in Europe and hence the recent strong prices across Europe before the rain forecast.

In the UK, November feed wheat had gained £0.6 ($0.75) per tonne, to £180.55 ($226.34) per tonne on April 26. This was just before the prediction of oncoming rains in Russia.

In Poland, export prices for May deliveries of protein wheat had hit 930 zloty ($230.73) a tonne on April 26.

Similar to Russia, Poland has lately passed a barren winter and is seeing enough moisture for its wheat crop.  This change could raise supplies and have a softening effect on the price of the grain.

However, the price may not fall drastically if shortage uncertainty of North American supplies continues, especially in the drought-stricken Kansas wheat belt in the U.S.

Some analysts now peg bullish hopes on no rain in Kansas for the rally in world wheat prices. Other analysts hope that rain in both Russia and the U.S. will soften the prices further due to expected surplus.

Finally, the upcoming announcement by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on the global wheat situation on May 10 could influence prices. The predictions normally affect wheat futures speculations, especially in Europe and North America.