Ivory Coast’s mid-crop cocoa harvest might shed yields by 25% to between 400,000 and 450,000 tonnes, according to regulators.
This is happening just 21/2 months after rainfall during the dry season in November 2023 fanned hopes of a major harvest.
On February 6, 2024, insiders at Ivory Coast’s Cocoa-Coffee Council (CCC) disclosed to Reuters of the looming drop in the mid-crop yields. The sources said that to gauge output margins, the country has already forward-sold up to 350,000 tonnes of the mid-crop.
Mid-crop cocoa is the lesser of two cocoa harvests in Ivory Coast and it runs from June to September. It follows the main season which, in turn, starts from October through March.
Millers Bag 730,000-ton Stocks
Despite falling below the 550,000-tonne margin of the 2022-23 mid-crop, the 2023-24 beans will still meet domestic milling demands.
Local grinders will have up to 90% of beans at hand through early stocking. CCC has enabled local millers to hit their yearly capacity of 730,000 tonnes of beans by allocating them buying reserves.
This move is wise as Ivory Coast may only produce 1.75 million tonnes of cocoa beans in the 2023-24 market year.
Dry Winds
The current Harmattan winds that are fanning across cocoa fields are among the weather-related causes for the tonnage fall. The winds dry up the plantations and reduce moisture retention in cocoa bean pods.
Even the October 1 to February 4 main cocoa crop suffered dry winds despite occasional rain and lost yields by 39%.
Farmers managed to transport 1.04 million tonnes of cocoa to Abidjan and other ports during this main export window.
Cocoa Gains on Shortage
With reserves shrinking from the world’s number one cocoa producer, Ivory Coast, Western markets are coping with steep price climbs.
In London, the February 6 futures for March cocoa surged six days in a row, to sell at £4,242 per tonne. This was a rise of 1.4% from the previous day or an extra £59, a daunting margin.
The New York session on February 6 echoed that of London, by gaining 0.60% from the previous day’s session.
West African cocoa landings into the United States fell to 4.1 million bags on January 12, a 2-year, 9-month low.
For now, CCC in Ivory Coast is watching monthly changes in its mid-crop cocoa crop. This analysis will help determine if the looming fall is merely a passing cycle.