The U.S. cattle stock has depreciated to its lowest since 1951, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on January 31, 2024.  

The 2022-23 drought slashed the herd numbers to 87.2 million head, including calves, as of January 1, 2024.

Analysts see this slump as an opportunity for Australia, Japan and China to swoop in and export extra beef to the U.S. The three Asia and Oceania nations cannot miss this chance as they have always done in the past due to U.S.’ cattle resilience.

Cattle, Calves, Heifers Down

Out of the 87.2 million cattle inventory, there were 37.6 million heifers and cows of calving age in 2023. Another 28.2 million were beef cattle, a dip of 2% from the 2022 numbers.

In the heifer department, numbers also plunged for young cows that usually serve as standby replacements for beef cows. They espoused a decrease of 10% from the 2022 levels, for a current inventory of 4.93 million standby beef heifers.

Calf numbers echoed the depreciation trends of the larger U.S. cattle stock by 2.5%, to stand at 33.6 million head.

Feed cattle were the exception as they notched up by 2% from the foregoing year’s count, to level off at 13.4 million head.

U.S. Cattle Prices Stable

As the herd numbers fall, prices of beef cattle in the United States have held strong the whole of 2023.

Statistics by USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) for January 29, 2024 show that prices peaked in Q4, 2023.  The October 2023 peak was $182.88 per cwt (approximately 45kg) for feeder steers in Oklahoma. This was an appreciation of 17% from the base price of January 2023 of $156.18 per cwt, for Oklahoma.

The prices for feeder cattle weighing 500-550 pounds appreciated month-on-month, peaking at $294.34 per cwt in November 2023.

Beef Production Down

Beef production, on the other hand, has followed similar trends as cattle numbers. Cattle meat output fell from 28.23 billion pounds in 2022 to 26.96 billion pounds in 2023.

Veal or calf meat also plummeted from 53.8 million pounds in 2022 to 48.1 million pounds in 2023.

The next report by USDA on the red meat and livestock sector will come out on February 28.