Agricultural exports from India will increase in 2024 irrespective of price and export curbs on onions, rice, wheat and sugar. This is per a trade ministry’s statement on January 8, 2024.

Trade minister, Piyush Goyal said that India’s agricultural exports reached $53 billion in the 2022/23 fiscal period and will improve in 2024.

The expected boon for the 2023/24 period may, however, lose $4 billion, according to a December 2023 estimate by Reuters. The possible loss owes to export restrictions on four key agricultural commodities with an aim to manage India’s food inflation. 

India ranks as the world’s second largest producer of three products currently experiencing export bans, namely rice, sugar and wheat. Non-basmati rice was one of the first casualties of the export restriction, before grains and onions followed suit. 

Onions on their part attract high regional exports to, especially, Bangladesh. Before the 2023 curb, India ranked the fifth largest onion exporter in the world in 2021, raking in $471 million.

Agricultural Exports to Double by 2030

Amid expectations to top 2023 exports in 2024, India’s agricultural exports might also double by 2030.

Commerce Secretary, Sunil Barthwal, stated on January 8 at the “IndusFoodShow 2024” that food exports will reach $100 billion.

The larger economical picture is even more ambitious. The Commerce Secretary has set a $2 trillion target in national trade and services’ exports in the next 6 years.

Processed Products to Buffer Onion Export Ban

For now, India is banking on processed products in the dairy, meat and horticultural sectors for increasing exports. 

Meat, dairy and livestock preparation exports in particular had a rosy run in most of 2023. These exports appreciated consecutively in 8 months ending November 2023. Meat and dairy exports for November 2023 improved by 19.91% over those of November 2022. 

Fruit as well as vegetable exports also increased in the same period of April through November, 2023. The value for November 2023 was $318.11 million, or 50.17% better than the 2022 equivalent.

This was at a time when prices in onion mandis (markets) hit an October 2023 high of 60 rupees ($0.72) a kilo.  This prompted the country to set a minimum export price (MEP) of 66,507 rupees or $800/tonne to deter exports. 

Merchants of onions will therefore not be celebrating the rise in India’s agricultural exports as yet. They will have to wait until March 31, 2024, when the ban ends, to start the rabi (spring) season’s exports.