COP28 ended today in Dubai after bagging a hard-fought draft detailing on a global transition away from fossil fuels. UN Secretary General Antônio Guterres praised the Dubai breakthrough despite its coming short of its aim for a total phase-out.

In a statement, Guterres cited the inevitability of a phaseout “to those who opposed a clear reference to a phaseout.”

A day earlier on December 12, the historic meeting had gone into overtime discussing suggestions for total fossil fuel phase-out. 

This follows a text by the host that called for the “phase out” of oil, gas and coal. Majority nations cited the vitality of these basic energy sources despite their destructive nature on the environment.

Dousing the rift, COP28 Director General Majid Al Suwaidi stated that the text’s aim had been only to “spark conversations.”

The “conversation” must then have riled the biggest opponent of a fossil phaseout, the Organization of Oil Producing Countries (OPEC). On December 12, OPEC mobilised its member states to oppose all drafts of a total fossil phase-out agreement.

Two New Gains

Despite failing to phase out oil, gas and coal, COP28 made commitments on renewable energy and finance.

The new draft outlines the tripling of renewable resources by countries so as to reach energy efficiency by 2030.  

Another gain is making the dormant Loss and Damage Fund operational, despite its current low funding. The UAE committed to inject $100 million to the fund to help finance activities that target pollution. 

Phase-out vis-á-Vis Pollution

The issue of pollution reduction, including in agriculture, was the core focus of this United Nations’ climate summit. Most pollution-heavy nations did not want the topic to steal the spotlight but it did via the host’s diplomacy.  The United Arab Emirates created a first when it chose fossil eradication as a key theme. 

The contentious issue at COP28 stemmed from lack of consensus on the meaning of the term “fossil phaseout.” Some analysts think that phase-out may indicate a radical cut in oil, gas and coal production to almost zero. Others take it to mean a gradual reduction, which consequently will have little or no effect on global temperatures. 

Scientific schools of thought on their part have strict measures in their definition of “phase-out.” To scientists, the burning of fuels is the cause of the bulk of carbon dioxide emission. Only by cutting burning by half can the world meet a 1.5-degree Celsius target by 2050. 

Big Emitters

It is also interesting that cities in the pro-”phase-out” zones such as Europe are also huge emitters. Sarajevo in Bosnia, for instance, had the highest world’s emissions in the COP28 weekend of December 10.  

On the other hand, countries that directly resist any phase out produce oil in bulk. They include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran and Iraq. Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia had coaxed the Emirati COP28 hosts to sideline fossil mention but this did not happen. 

Ultimately, in the words of UN’s Climate chief Simon Stiel, the gains in COP28 are the “beginning of the end.”