El Niño will extend to mid-2024, ending the current drought in Mexico but threatening Latin American agriculture in the long run.

The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) announced these outcomes in Santiago, Chile on October 19, 2023.

Citing rising surface temperatures on the Pacific, the United Nations’ agricultural arm predicts abnormal rainfall in Central and South America. As a result, the reigning dry spell in Central America will most likely tail off before December, 2023.

Southern Cone nations excluding Brazil will absorb much rainfall during the extended period of the weather phenomenon. Brazil and Guyana will suffer parallel dry conditions even as Mexico, Ecuador and Peru grapple with rainfall glut.

Between drought and abnormal rainfall, FAO points out that drought leads to 82% economic losses while sporadic rain inflicts 26% losses. Hence, South American nations that depend on commercial agriculture will most likely need to keep food reserves for the future.

El Niño effect on Ecuadorian & Peruvian fisheries

Southern Cone countries experiencing changing sea temperatures are already reporting low catches in popular seafood. Fishermen in southern Ecuador started signaling a 30% decrement in tuna harvests beginning February, 2023.

On the northern coast of Peru, which is one the best habitats of anchovy species, there are less catches this season due to warming waters. Anchovies survive on seaweed such as phytoplankton that grow in marine deeps. During normal weather patterns, cold air moves the ocean currents from beneath and exposes the nutritional plants up for photosynthesis. During El Niño, warm winds blow in hot currents which kills the plants and so the fish can’t survive.

Effect on Latin America Grains

Alternating warm El Niño and cool La Nina patterns have always impacted rice, maize and soybean crops in Central America. In the 2015 phase, the region reported corn losses of up to 60% and 80% for the soy crop.

The end of El Niño forces drought upon grain fields while other unrelated climate change effects cause heat waves.

Northern Hemisphere Predictions

As winds fan warm currents over the Pacific, there is a 90% likelihood that abnormal weather patterns will traverse the Northern winter.

FAO also indicates that there is an 81% possibility of El Niño being strong-to-moderate up to May 2024.

Thus, though the weather phenomenon will end drought in Mexico, it may leave a negative impact on regional agriculture in 2024.