News summary: In Argentina, El Niño shows weak impact in the July-September quarter and wheat rains are delayed. West of the core zone maintains the trend, while southern Buenos Aires will see an improvement.

El Niño has arrived, but the soil is still unable to capitalize on this scenario. The rains do not start and much of the core zone will receive normal or below-normal in the coming months.

The National Meteorological Service (SMN) reported that the quarterly forecast from July to September shows a similar scenario to that of the last few months. Southern Buenos Aires is the big beneficiary.

“Let’s remember that normally the impact of El Niño towards above-normal rainfall begins near spring,” reported the Agricultural Risk Office (ORA). In this sense, the report analyzes the SMN forecast and highlights that there are probabilities of normal rains in the northern region, south of the Litoral, west of Buenos Aires, La Pampa and south of Patagonia.

In addition, the SMN reflects that, in the province of Córdoba and west of Santa Fe, normal to below-normal quarterly rainfall is estimated. “That is, the behavior of the last months would be projected for three more months,” the ORA commented.

However, in the northern Litoral, eastern Buenos Aires, southern Cuyo and eastern Patagonia, normal to above-normal precipitation is expected. ORA commented that this scenario, given the current soil moisture conditions, is a good outlook for the southern wheat core.

“In contrast, for the core area, the forecast of normal to slightly above normal rainfall is likely to be concentrated closer to September,” the report commented. This outlook would not be ideal for wheat. For its part, western Patagonia expects current above normal rainfall conditions to continue.

Looking at the temperature forecast, the models show that the NOA, North, Litoral, Córdoba and Santa Fe regions will record above normal average temperatures. On the other hand, in the extreme south it will be normal to below-normal.

Source: News.agrofy.com.ar