After a 0.8% year-on-year decline in 2022, French cow’s milk collection does not seem to be set to recover in 2023. Data from FranceAgriMer show a cumulative annual decline of 1.2% in January and February. This is a trend that should be confirmed, or even amplified, in March. The spring collection peak looks somewhat timid this year.

-Cumulative French milk collection was down at the beginning of the year. The decline in the dairy herd was accentuated last summer and is continuing at a steady pace,” says Jean-Marc Chaumet, an economist with the French dairy industry association (Cniel). Combined with decapitalization, the lack of replacement heifers does not help. In February 2023, the number of dairy cows fell by 2.6% over one year.

“This rate is close to 3% in Brittany. The major production basins are not spared,” said the expert. The recent and upcoming climatic hazards are not encouraging farmers to draw on their forage stocks. The rush to buy concentrates is not on the agenda either. The context is therefore not conducive to the full expression of the dairy potential of cows.

Depreciation of the value of butter powder

The price of milk, although historically high, is not sufficiently engaging to boost production. All sectors combined, the standard price for quality 38/32 has stabilized at €482 /1,000 liters over the first two months of 2023 (+ 22.3% compared to 2022), after a significant and uninterrupted growth in 2021 and 2022. In conventional milk, the standard price has frozen at €469/1,000 liters.

– The price of milk remains high, but does not encourage farmers to produce more.

“The price of milk in France would have dropped by about €10 /1,000 liters in March and more in April,” says the Institute of Livestock. This forecast is more related to “the market context” than to the usual seasonality, according to Jean-Marc Chaumet. The world’s dairy availability is increasing overall over a year when the Chinese appetite follows the opposite trend. The value of butter powder is falling.

At the same time, the increase in costs is slowing down in breeding. The Ipampa (France’s price index agency) for cow’s milk has been stable overall since the last quarter of 2022. “The items fertilizers and soil improvers have gone down, energy is faltering and purchased feed is slowly but surely increasing,” summarizes the economist. The geopolitical component is clouding forecasts. In this context, stabilization is also the order of the day for the Ipampa margin on total indexed cost (Milc) of producers at the beginning of the year.

Less reactivity of the French price

Both up and down, “fluctuations in the price of French milk are less strong and less responsive than in our European neighbors,” says Jean-Marc Chaumet. The real price fell by 6 to 9% between January and February 2023 in Germany, Belgium, Ireland and the Netherlands (data compiled by the European Commission).

In these countries, “price formulas are very dependent on world prices and renegotiations with supermarkets are more regular,” he says. In France, “manufacturers have passed on increases during the trade negotiations concluded in March. The repercussion on consumers is certainly slower, but today helps to maintain the price of milk.

Source: Lafranceagricole.fr